So, in my previous post about [Great American Novelist] Cory Doctorow, I made an off-handed comment about the War on Scarcity. I turned to my cube mate, and asked him if he knew what the War on Scarcity was, which he did. (He's also a fan of Cory). So, I got to thinking. Where did I hear that term "War on Scarcity"? Why do some people seem to instinctively know what it means?
Well, Google says that the only references to the term "War on Scarcity" online are references to a 2004 speech by Tim Sanders (Steve's 2 Cents has a retelling of it here), and are self improvement related in nature. Basically, in this use it is a call for people to reject modern consumerist thinking. Appreciate what you have and not what you lack.
But, the War on Scarcity is really much larger than that, and it is only just beginning. It is not something that you can solve simply by becoming a Buddhist and rejecting your material desires. It is a drama that has been unfolding for thousands of years. It has been smoldering - not a full-fledged war - but there have been skirmishes. You see its echoes in history: the Magna Carta, Marxism, and DRM. It's part of what it means to be a human being. While just as there are pacifists in any war, individuals may turn away from materialism, the conflict will continue to unfold around them.
We are now at a critical nexus in this drama. There are signs that the opening salvos of the true war to come have already been fired, and the events that take place in the next 50 years will have a profound effect in that they will tell us the nature of the conflict that will likely continue for a thousand years into the future.
But, to understand a War on Scarcity, one needs to understand the nature of Scarcity itself. Scarcity has been with us since man first walked the earth. Historically, and perhaps ironically, we are accustomed to having an abundance of scarcity. We have always struggled to have enough resources to go around, whether it is food, land, raw materials, fuel, money, or energy. As man has progressed, we've continually found ways to produce resources in great abundance. So, we shift our attention to solving the problems of scarcity at a higher level. Instead of struggling for food, we start wars over oil. But, do we take the abundance that we create and truly eliminate the scarcity?
Think about it. As just an example, there is now enough food in the United States to feed a large part of the world - so much so that the government has an active interest in propping up the price of basic foodstuffs like corn. Corn itself is now so cheap that we find corn starch and corn syrup are added to practically every type of packaged food product we eat. Corn is now cheap, so the masses can now have it is quantities that are greater than are healthy. We slurp down corn laden Coca-cola with our Doritos, and get fat. Our bodies are not evolved to eat large amounts of empty corn calories every day. One might even say that the scarcity was better for us in some ways than the abundance.
Instead, we could feed the starving masses of the world (and, to our credit, sometimes we try), but by and large any attempt to do this is impeded by the systems we have in place around the world to prevent it. We call those systems governments. Ostensibly, we set them up to ensure justice and provide for the common good, but often they just act as a machine for perpetuating unnecessary scarcity. Whether the corn is rejected for being genetically engineered or is stolen by warlords really doesn't matter; either way the result is that someone goes without a meal.
Where the scarcity is resolved, new scarcities arise. Some people, who have more money than others, choose to buy steak (raised on corn) or whole and organic foods. Is there a scarcity of cows that not everyone can afford steak? Is there a scarcity of vegetables grown without pesticides? And what of the scarcity of paper money that causes some people have enough of it to overcome these scarcities while others can't? Some scarcities are real. There is only so much land after all. Some are manufactured. As long as someone is paying farmers to grow more corn than they really need (or can profitably sell), then there will be less for cattle and carrots.
Some are entirely imaginary.
And that is where things get very interesting. If you look at the course of human history, you can easily get the sense that at least some of us are very comfortable with scarcity. We now have systems put in place all around us that perpetuate and even celebrate scarcity. We have a money system based entirely on faith, investment markets composed entirely of rules and too complex to truly understand, and bank vaults full of notes that no human will redeem within our lifetime. We have erected a cadre of laws for intellectual property that makes it a crime to take something from another human being while at the same time also allowing them to keep it. Given that in the whole sphere of human knowledge each success rests upon the accomplishments of those who came before us, this idea is itself so tenuous that half the world considers it a fallacy. We endow corporations with the rights of living men, while consciously overlooking that they are immortal giants who nearly cannot help thinking of "ordinary" men as mere insects. We are categorized: employee, customer, consumer - competition.
Unlike the War on Poverty, the War on Drugs, and the War on Terror, the War on Scarcity was not declared by any government. Actually, calling it the War on Scarcity is perhaps a bit perverse, because it was really started by those who favor scarcity. But, like those other "wars", it does have an enemy which is partly – if not entirely – make-believe. However, this does not mean that the stakes are not high or that the consequences of the conflict can't be felt by you and me.
I can't sit on my soap box and pretend that I know all there is to know about the War. Perhaps I will be able to articulate that at some later point in time. For now, it was my hope that I can convey a general sense of the idea that is represented by the term. As a way of doing this, I would like you to consider a few thought exercises.
Suppose that tomorrow a very smart man develops in his garage a means for creating virtually limitless energy. If this is too hard, imagine that he merely finds a way to get much more use out of the energy sources we already have – say triple our efficiency. Suppose that man has a choice: he can choose to publish his method to the entire world, or he can keep his method secret and instead sell the fruits of his labor - namely the energy it produces or saves. If he does the latter, does he benefit more from selling more energy more cheaply, or does he benefit more from selling less of it at a higher price? Suppose he wants to take the first option instead. Do we live in a society that would celebrate this man as a hero, or like John Galt would we make him learn to regret his generosity?
There are now 3D printers that can create products out of plastic from plastic powder using only a CAD drawing. It is not so difficult to imagine a future, not unlike the one in Printcrime, where we have such devices that are capable of making virtually anything out of common raw materials like metal, paper, plastic, or wood. Suppose you had such a device in your home. Is there anything that you should not be allowed to make in it? What if you wanted to make a pistol? What if you wanted to make a grenade? How about a box full of grenades or a basement of weapons? Suppose you had a much larger version of such a device in your garage? Would you make a car with it? If you had or could easily download the blueprint for a '66 Camero, what would car companies have to offer you to convince you to pay $30,000 for one of their blueprints instead? What about the time period where not everyone has a garage sized printer? Would you sell a car to your neighbor or give it away? If you didn't have one, how would you feel if you knew that GM or Toyota were actively trying to keep you from getting one?
What does it mean for a copyright to be infinitely renewable? If a corporation can live forever, and the intellectual works of its employees are the intellectual property of no single man, but only of the organization, then does that mean that they remain copyrighted indefinitely? Is it right that Walt Disney was able to transfer the copyright for Mickey Mouse to a corporation that under the DMCA will continually renew it for all time to come? Should the Public Domain encompass the works of William Shakespeare but not Steamboat Willie? Didn't both have a profound impact to human history, and was Walt cheating death this way or only cheating himself?
The next time you download a song for free over the Internet, or hear people debating that topic after a story on the evening news, you should think about this. We are getting smarter – collectively. We are solving problems of technology at a rate that is increasing exponentially. But, we are adapting to our new abilities much more slowly, because the concept of not having enough is very deeply engrained into the human consciousness. We are, after all, living and mortal beings with physical needs. But just as it is now not entirely impossible to give practically every human being alive a complete box set of the works of Paul McCartney on MP3, it will someday be possible to give every human being a TV, and X-Box 360, a car, a house, and a diamond ring.
Some people will ask what will compel people to work in a world where they can have anything they desire at virtually no cost. Others will say "Who cares, because we'll have practically anything we want." The answer will either be wonder or fear. The more we try to prop up scarcity today, the more we are delaying and magnifying the inevitable conflict to come. And, I am certain that we will be very lucky indeed if it does not eventually come to people killing each other. That is the essence of the War on Scarcity.